The European parliamentary elections, which took place under the pall of continuing confusion and uncertainty surrounding the UK’s Brexit and attracted 37% turnout, reveal a polarized country in the midst of a wrenching political realignment. The big questions are what the new political equilibrium will look like, and how long it will take to emerge, given that the political scene now appears to be divided into three roughly equal factions.
- In the UK the European parliamentary elections were dominated by Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, which all profited at the expense of the established mainstream parties, with the Conservatives hemorrhaging support to the Brexit Party while the Green Party and Liberal Democrats picked up votes from Labour.
- According to preliminary results the Brexit Party led the way with 31.7% of the vote, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 18.5%. Labour came third with 14.1%, then the Greens with 11.1%, while the Conservatives trailed with 8.7%.
- The Conservative net represents a devastating drop of 14.4% percentage points from the last European election in 2014. For Labour it’s a 10.3% tumble from the last election. Change UK, a new party representing independents in Parliament, took 3%.
- Brexit Party, the successor to Farage’s old UKIP, built a 5.1% gain over the old party’s showing of 26.6% in 2014. The remnant UKIP, now a far-right outfit, still polled 3.6%. Together Farage’s new and old parties, loosely united by the cause of Brexit, took 35.3% of the vote.
- The results will encourage tendencies towards polarization in British politics: Labour’s loss of support to the Liberal Democrats and Greens will force it into full-throated support of a second referendum, while Conservative’s losses to the Brexit Party will encourage an even harder line in favor of “no deal” or “Hard Brexit” among Theresa May’s potential successors, regardless of economic consequences.
- The UK EP elections point to a political scene divided into three roughly equally sized blocks – one favoring hard Brexit, another favoring a second, confirmatory referendum and Remain, and a less vocal third section apparently favoring moderate options such as Soft Brexit, involving long-term membership in a customs union in order to avoid imposing a hard border in Ireland.
