By Daniel McGroarty
GeoPolicy, Defense Editor
Don’t make those travel plans just yet: The much-awaited Trump-Xi trade “summit” seems to be sailing deeper into calendar 2019, with word over the past 24 hours (Reuters) that the meet “won’t happen in March,” may “push into April” (Breitbart), or “may be pushed back to June” (South China Morning Post).
Meanwhile, in Asia’s busiest sea lane for trade, there is jockeying of a far more literal – and dangerous – sort. According to a new piece at The National Interest, the South China Sea, passage-point for 21% of the world’s trade, may well prove ground zero for World War III: “The People’s Republic of China (PRC) appears to be calling for war—a war it may well get. But it is a war that will not stay confined to that body of water, and a war that could ultimately end with regime change in Beijing.”
While authors Kerry K. Gershaneck and James E. Fanell serve up a scenario which results in naval conflict in early 2020, other China-watchers are not so sure. Take a look back at Foreign Policy’s “Stop the South China Sea Charade,” which argued that “America’s angst about Chinese aggression in the South China Sea is overblown – and China knows it.”
Will trade war move from metaphor to military reality? The point is that conflict often obeys a logic of its own. And unlike trade, which is predicated on a win-win for both parties, war often presents more than its share of lose-lose scenarios.
Something to ponder as the U.S.-China trade talks proceed – or fail to.
Daniel McGroarty is The Economic Standard‘s Editor for GeoPolicy, Defense, Natural Resources. An analyst and consultant focusing on critical and strategic materials and supply chains, Dan was one of three Rare Earths resource professionals interviewed in 60 Minutes’ investigative piece, Modern Life’s Devices Under China’s Grip?, which aired in 2015. As a recognized subject-matter expert, McGroarty has provided testimony on critical metals issues to the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, the House Sub-Committee on Energy & Mineral Resources, and the U.S. House Sub-Committee on Science, Space & Technology. A former think tank fellow, McGroarty’s articles and opeds on current issues have been published in The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Politico, Forbes FoxNews, RealClearPolitics and RealClearWorld, National Review, the Los Angeles Times, Investor’s Business Daily, Policy Review and The American Spectator. Dan has also appeared as an expert on CNBC, Fox, CNN, Bloomberg Business, and CTV Canada.
