Sub-saharan Africa’s economic growth rate dipped to 2.3% in 2018, down from an average 3.3% in the previous half-decade, according to a World Bank cited by the Financial Times, but the slowdown won’t last: over the next few years increasing prices for commodities will boost the region’s agricultural and mining sectors, the mainstay of many countries’ exports, the World Bank predicts.
- The dip in growth was due to simultaneous slowdowns in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, by far the region’s biggest economies, caused by the falling price of oil and South Africa’s continuing social, economic, and governmental woes, which battered investor confidence.
- Looking ahead, however, the World Bank sees growth returning to 2.8% this year and well over 3% in 2020, aided by the commodity upswing and expected reforms in South Africa under president Cyril Ramaphosa.
Interestingly, increased growth rates across sub-Saharan Africa may well lead to an uptick in emigration. Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic migration (rather than flight from violence) is associated with increasing incomes in the countries of origin, rather than poverty, as individuals and families finally earn enough to buy relatively expensive passages to Europe, the Middle East, or elsewhere. On that note a new UN report estimates that emigration potential peaks at per capita GDP of $8,000-$10,000, after which rising standards of living lessen incentives to leave. At $6,160 in 2017, South Africa’s per capita GDP is fast approaching this emigration sweet spot, although Angola ($4,170) and Nigeria ($1,969) remain considerably further behind.
